CA1 Victory Plan
Republicans have a significant registration edge in CA-01: registration in CA-01 is 41% Republican, 30% Democrat and 29% other (decline-to-state or 3rd party). The total number of registered voters in the district is approximately 400,000. Democrats combined with decline-to-state voters outnumber Republicans 51% to 41% with an additional 8% of third-party registrants. A winning strategy in this district requires boosting Democratic turnout, registering new Democratic-leaning voters, and persuading decline-to-state and third-party voters to vote Democratic.
One of the most crucial elements in any campaign or field plan is the “win number,” which is the estimate of how many votes we need to ensure victory on Election Day (50%+1 of the turnout). Everything done during a campaign, from knocking on doors to calling for volunteers, should be in pursuit of reaching our win number. Looking at turnout from previous midterm elections, as well as the 2018 primary election, our analysis projects a 2018 turnout of 265,225 or 67% in CA-01. This would make the Win Number 132,614.
To identify the voter deficit that we need to address, we identify all high propensity Democratic voters in CA-01, who have voted in every general election for the past 3 election cycles (55,774 voters), we can utilize this number as one of our core assumptions to project the 2018 democratic performance and our baseline universe. Therefore, we calculate the baseline universe by utilizing 55,774 voters as the foundation, assuming that we can expect around 95% of these voters to turnout or 52,985 votes coming November 2018. An additional 24,029 have voted in 2 of the past 3 general elections, so we should expect 66% of them to turn out as they have demonstrated a 66% chance of voting. This means an additional or 15,859 more votes. This gives us a starting point of 68,844 votes for our baseline universe.
Based on the 2018 Primary results and the historical turnout in this district, we project a baseline universe of 68,844 voters and a voter deficit of 63,769. The voter deficit can be mitigated by converting new Republican and Decline-to-State voters and also by increasing Democratic turnout performance throughout the district. The candidate, the Democratic Party, and independent Resistance groups will all be working to recruit and turn out voters to overcome this voter deficit.
This can be done using the following four approaches:
1) increasing Democratic turnout
2) focusing on higher conversion rates among swing-voter targets
3) reducing Republican enthusiasm
4) increasing Democratic registration
The most successful operation will include a combination of all four.